Previous Hypothesis Disproven: Trump is NOT ethical or moral
I recently wrote a post as a thought experiment—Hypothesis Trump is moral and ethical. In a nutshell, that hypothesis is disproven.
Some people read my headline and assumed that I am pro-Trump. I am not. I have never believed that Trump is a good person. His actions in the White House have demonstrated that enriching himself and his family is a high priority of his administration. At the same time, I know I live in an echo chamber that accentuates the negatives about Trump, and seldom presents different possibilities.
In my view, the possibility existed that most of Trump's accomplishments had been relatively harmless signals to his constituency. Many people believe that Trump has caused a lot of damage tot he country (including reputational), despite lack of significant progress, and I get that. I think that until now, most of the damage has been easily reversible. I selected this issue as the litmus test, because there was pretty widespread belief among economists and laypeople, that the bill would be a net negative, it was clear that Trump would benefit from the passage, and it was the first significant action he had a chance to take. Remember, repeal of ACA never got to him.
In my mind, there was a possibility (maybe a hope), albeit slim, that Trump had good intentions with respect to the presidency and the nation. Scott Adams argued that Trump first needed to take leadership of the Republicans by pacing and leading. In other words, prove that he is one of them, then use that identity to steer the direction (see point 5 in this link).
Some of my friends thought I had gone into "engineer mode" when I put the previous post out there. I had. It is my best tool to try to overcome confirmation bias.
I ended that previous post with the following statement, “If he signs the bill, we must reject the hypothesis that he is a moral and ethically aware adult. If he vetoes it, there is still a possibility that he is morally and ethically aware.”
Any belief that Trump has a shred of decency is now disproven by his signing of the bill. The bill was passed purely along party lines, against public opinion polls, and despite the fact that every non-partisan analysis showed that it would increase the deficit, reduce aid to the needy, and transfer tremendous wealth to the top few percent of the nation. Furthermore, I can't think of any larger conflict of interest in history for a person elected or appointed to oversee the public trust.
Sure, many people will see a lower tax bill in 2018, but over the next 10 years, those tax savings decline. Personal tax savings for middle-class workers completely goes away in 2027, when their tax cut expires. On the other hand, Trump and his family will reap tremendous personal benefit from the new tax code. Keep in mind that a 10% savings for someone paying a 10 million dollars in tax is 1 million; A 10% savings for someone paying 10,000 is only 1000.
By the way, if anyone wants to argue that because the bill does not eliminate the estate tax, Trump dd not benefit much, I have a few points to make. First, he will get plenty of benefits from the change in the pass-through tax rate as well as other benefits granted for real estate businesses. Second, Trump would not personally benefit from the estate tax, his family would. Finally, this game is not over. He has three years to take other bites at this apple. Repeal of the estate tax will come back. For anyone saying it is double taxation, I have one thing to say (which will not change your mind). The deceased is not double taxed. He is taxed once when the money is earned (maybe), then when he dies his family is taxed on their receipt of the money.
The bill is also balanced in a way that punishes blue states while enriching red ones. Trump's signature is a completely unethical money grab by him and his fellow 1%ers. Trump is not draining the swamp, he is the swamp.
Some people read my headline and assumed that I am pro-Trump. I am not. I have never believed that Trump is a good person. His actions in the White House have demonstrated that enriching himself and his family is a high priority of his administration. At the same time, I know I live in an echo chamber that accentuates the negatives about Trump, and seldom presents different possibilities.
In my view, the possibility existed that most of Trump's accomplishments had been relatively harmless signals to his constituency. Many people believe that Trump has caused a lot of damage tot he country (including reputational), despite lack of significant progress, and I get that. I think that until now, most of the damage has been easily reversible. I selected this issue as the litmus test, because there was pretty widespread belief among economists and laypeople, that the bill would be a net negative, it was clear that Trump would benefit from the passage, and it was the first significant action he had a chance to take. Remember, repeal of ACA never got to him.
In my mind, there was a possibility (maybe a hope), albeit slim, that Trump had good intentions with respect to the presidency and the nation. Scott Adams argued that Trump first needed to take leadership of the Republicans by pacing and leading. In other words, prove that he is one of them, then use that identity to steer the direction (see point 5 in this link).
Some of my friends thought I had gone into "engineer mode" when I put the previous post out there. I had. It is my best tool to try to overcome confirmation bias.
I ended that previous post with the following statement, “If he signs the bill, we must reject the hypothesis that he is a moral and ethically aware adult. If he vetoes it, there is still a possibility that he is morally and ethically aware.”
Any belief that Trump has a shred of decency is now disproven by his signing of the bill. The bill was passed purely along party lines, against public opinion polls, and despite the fact that every non-partisan analysis showed that it would increase the deficit, reduce aid to the needy, and transfer tremendous wealth to the top few percent of the nation. Furthermore, I can't think of any larger conflict of interest in history for a person elected or appointed to oversee the public trust.
Sure, many people will see a lower tax bill in 2018, but over the next 10 years, those tax savings decline. Personal tax savings for middle-class workers completely goes away in 2027, when their tax cut expires. On the other hand, Trump and his family will reap tremendous personal benefit from the new tax code. Keep in mind that a 10% savings for someone paying a 10 million dollars in tax is 1 million; A 10% savings for someone paying 10,000 is only 1000.
By the way, if anyone wants to argue that because the bill does not eliminate the estate tax, Trump dd not benefit much, I have a few points to make. First, he will get plenty of benefits from the change in the pass-through tax rate as well as other benefits granted for real estate businesses. Second, Trump would not personally benefit from the estate tax, his family would. Finally, this game is not over. He has three years to take other bites at this apple. Repeal of the estate tax will come back. For anyone saying it is double taxation, I have one thing to say (which will not change your mind). The deceased is not double taxed. He is taxed once when the money is earned (maybe), then when he dies his family is taxed on their receipt of the money.
The bill is also balanced in a way that punishes blue states while enriching red ones. Trump's signature is a completely unethical money grab by him and his fellow 1%ers. Trump is not draining the swamp, he is the swamp.
