Tony K's Blog

Sea-level has undeniably been rising for the last 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. In the 130 years from 1870 to 2000, global sea level rose by about 200 mm. That’s 8 inches. This works out to about 1.5 mm/yr. Between 1950 (when the anthropogenic signature begins) and 2000, sea level rose about 75 mm (3 inches). That’s a pretty decent historical record.   A simple linear extrapolation of this trend gets you to 125 mm by 2100. That is an additional 5 inches or so. I’m not saying that is a good estimate of what will happen, but it’s probably a good starting point. In my view, it is probably towards the low end of what we would expect to see in the next 80 years. In a bay with 6-foot swings in tide twice daily, 5 inches is not going to change anything. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ According to satellite data since 1993, the rate is about double the historical rate. If that trend were to continue, sea level will be another 10 inches abov...

I recently wrote a post as a thought experiment —Hypothesis Trump is moral and ethical. In a nutshell, that hypothesis is disproven. Some people read my headline and assumed that I am pro-Trump. I am not. I have never believed that Trump is a good person. His actions in the White House have demonstrated that enriching himself and his family is a high priority of his administration. At the same time, I know I live in an echo chamber that accentuates the negatives about Trump, and seldom presents different possibilities. In my view, the possibility existed that most of Trump's accomplishments had been relatively harmless signals to his constituency. Many people believe that Trump has caused a lot of damage tot he country (including reputational), despite lack of significant progress, and I get that. I think that until now, most of the damage has been easily reversible. I selected this issue as the litmus test, because there was pretty widespread belief among economists and l...

Background: The tax bill recently passed by Congress will have two results: benefits will go down for the majority of Americans and taxes will go up for the majority of Americans. Donald Trump and his family are in a position in which they will overwhelmingly benefit. They do not need most of the benefits, and DT's inheritance taxes alone will decrease by $4 billion . His family will also benefit enormously from the change in the pass-through rate. I am assuming that he pays taxes in the US at all, which based on the one tax return he made public is the case. It is fair to assume that the Trump family will benefit by more than $5 billion personally overt he next 10 years or so. Hypothesis: Donald Trump, as president of the United States is in a position to approve or veto a bill that will benefit him more than 99.99% of his constituents. Human beings all have a self-serving bias, and ethically and morally aware adults realize this. As a result, if Donald Trump is ethically and mo...

There is a lot of talk from the republicans about how the tax cut on business will flow down to workers. Let's be clear about this though. The initial impact will be to increase profits to businesses. The tax shortfall has to be made up from somewhere else, either reduction in spending (mainly from programs for the poor), or from increases on others (aiming at blue state tax deductibility). Wages are set based on the local labor market. Any belief that a tax cut will result in higher labor rate is irrational. There is an argument that lower taxes will result in more investment, but this takes years, and may not actually happen. By the way, taxes on US businesses are among the lowest in the world already. Yes, the statutory rates are higher, but there are many deductions and dodges allowed. And ultimately, if we are to have programs that protect us and the poorest and least fortunate members of society, it has to be paid for. Ultimately, that means taxes. We all pay for it in ...

I wrote this in October of 2016. I had no idea how prescient it would be.   Trumps greedy long game - Trumps' heirs would receive at least $4 billion benefit at the expense of the US taxpayer   Donald's 1995 tax return was recently released. It's interesting that he had a tax loss of almost $1 billion in that year, but that, along with tax deductions, is business. Really nothing to see there. But it got me thinking.   The tax system is complex for businesses. One of the features is that it allows businesses to recognize depreciation of assets. Most governments do this in some form to encourage investment. If you invest $1,000 on an asset that is allowed to depreciate over 10 years, you can subtract $100 per year from your income each year for the next 10, until the tax value goes to zero. This reflects the value from a tax perspective, not the actual value.   If you then sell the asset for $50, you then owe taxes on $50 (sales value mi...

I see three concerns about voter "irregularities": vote fraud, obstruction at the polls, and disenfranchisement through manipulating laws and rules. Vote Fraud Hey, I'm from Chicago where "vote early and often" is more than a slogan, it's a career path. If you believe the mythology, this is mostly democrats. This is cheating, and it is illegal. It undermines our democracy by overrepresenting a point of view. It should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. There is little evidence that this happens regularly at a large scale. The good news with this one is that everyone still has a voice; the bad news is that widespread abuse could dilute and overwhelm those voices and the process. Obstruction and Intimidation at the Polls This is bad. Trump's call to his followers to get out to the polls is troublesome. If they keep it under control and do not attempt to intimidate or obstruct, that's ok. I believe that there i...

The tax system is complex for businesses. One of the features is that it allows businesses to recognize depreciation of assets. Most governments do this in some form to encourage investment. If you spend $1,000 for an asset that is allowed to tax depreciate over 10 years, you can subtract $100 per year from your income each year for the next 10, until the tax value goes to zero. So you pay less in normal taxes at your tax rate. This reflects the value from a tax perspective, not the actual market value. To emphasize, virtually all governments allow this recovery of costs on an accelerated basis to encourage investment. If you then sell the asset for $50, you owe taxes on the $50 (sales value minus depreciated value of zero). Likewise, if you can get $1,200 for the asset, you would owe tax on the full $1,200. Equipment and machinery tend to go down in market value over time and with use, whereas historically, property appreciates. Even then, the gain is taxed at the lower ...