Tony K's Blog

My name is Tony and I am a Macaholic. I own a few shares of Apple stock and have been a Mac User and owner since I bought my Mac Plus in about 1986 or so. I have reviewed software, supported computers, worked with user groups, and am an advanced user of most of the standard programs. There is little doubt in my mind that even since the first days of the Lisa, Macs have represented not only a better product, but also a better value. When Macs first came out they were not cheap, but the beauty of them is that they came in a single package with just about everything you needed. PCs on the other hand were much cheaper, but... If you actually wanted to use them you were stuck with plunking down a whole lot more money to get up to the same capability of a Mac. This holds true today too. I'll write more about Macs later.

In the first two debates, I thought that Kerry blew Bush away purely on better arguments. A lot of people focused on Bush's facial expressions; I didn't even notice them. Tonight I watched though. He generally seemed to have control over himself. As far as the answers that they gave go, I tended to like Kerry's answers better, but didn't see any real knockout punches as in the first two debates. W said he prays a lot. I somehow don't buy it. He said, "I never want to impose my religion on anyone else." I almost vomited. Bush tried a few jokes and they were really lame. I just heard that Bush did in fact say that he wasn't worried about Osama bin Laden. Call this one a draw.

Several really important points: Sanctions:Bush said that the sanctions weren't working because Hussein had still been in power. Kerry made the right point that in fact, the sanctions worked. Hussein had no WMDs and, by the way, the sanctions were not intended to take him out of power. Huge score for Kerry in my book. Environment: Bush talked aout how the air is cleaner today than it was 4 years ago. That may be true, but it is despite his efforts, not because of them. He has relaxed standards on air and water pollution drastically. Abortions: The other really telling part was during their discussion about partial birth abortions. Bush said and repeated, Kerry voted against it There's nothing else you need to know. Kerry explained his vote against it because it did not make necessary allowances in certain cases. I know many people see abortion as black and white, but there are a lot of gray shades there. Bush's inability to see or admit those shades is insane. ...

My wife, Kathleen, has recently taken up Mosaics. It has opened my eyes to a very cool art form. It has elements of both art and construction. In Ravenna Italy there are mosaics still standing that were created in the 6th century. You have to love art that lasts

I think the United Stated is a great country, but a great country with a serious problem. I think that problem begins with the way we elect our leaders. Never mind the electoral college. That has some issues, but I don't think that's the worst of the problems. I want to go to the problems with the principle of whoever has the most votes wins. On the surface it's not bad, especially because we have a bill of rights to protect us for the most part from Tyranny of the Majority. However in the case of the United States, I believe that it has led to increasing polarization of the people in this country. Our economy and society is extremely complex. To winnow our choices down to two people at the end of the day doesn't allow for full expression of views to carry forward. I can hear you thinking, "but there are more than two people. What is to stop one from voting for a Green candidate or libertarian?" Well nothing stops us except the system. Even though I may like a...

OK so I wrote a long screed against IRR and said that MIRR is a better metric, I consider that a fact. But does that really give the answer? It is a good start. Given that you have some system to prioritize opportunities, you can end up with the highest value. That is usually not the whole picture though. Within a single project, there are usually distinct alternatives to consider. For example, sometimes a project may be able to trade current capital expenditure for future operational expense. This may have the impact of ultimately reducing margins, but giving the company additional leverage in the short term. So how do you do it? There's really a continuum of methods ranging from simple standalone analysis to a more complete approach incorporating estimates of risk and uncertainty. I believe that most organizations can benefit from a portfolio analysis approach, which tends to the complete side of the spectrum. In a perfect world, here's what that looks like. You need an inv...

A McKinsey article on IRR (Internal Rate of Return) and why it is EVIL. (My words) Project and opportunity evaluation has two main types of indicative metrics: value and efficiency. Value is typically expressed as Net Present Value or NPV. There are to typical ways of expressing efficiency: as a percent return on investment or as a ratio. The most commonly used percent function is Internal Rate of Return. First a little background. Present value methods are based on the idea that most people and companies would rather receive one dollar today, than that same dollar one year from today. The preference is usually expressed as a cost of capital or discount factor (percentage) and should equal an indifference value. For example, if it is the same to you whether you receive $1 today, or $1.10 in a year, your discount factor is said to be 10%. In most cases, it represents either a cost or a lost opportunity. In project or investment analysis, typically an analyst will generate a set...